(UK) Northumberland: 6,000 SPED students expected by 2030; "huge pressure" on SPED budget

July 3, 2026,  Number of Northumberland children with additional needs expected to top 6,000 by the end of the decade - Chronicle Live

The number of children in Northumberland requiring an education and healthcare plan (EHCP) is expected to top 6,000 by the end of the decade. There are currently more than 4,000 children with an EHCP, and the warning that the figure is expected to rise comes amid huge pressure on the special education budget in the county.

The Government has projected that the number of EHCPs will continue to grow until 2030, after which they will fall until they reach current levels again by 2035. The growth is being driven by rises in children with three primary needs - autism; social, emotional and mental health needs; and speech, language and communication needs.

Increasing demand in recent years has put the high needs block of Northumberland's school funding into deficit. Between 2017 and 2023, EHCP numbers increased by an average of 9% a year - this rocketed to 20% in 2023/24 - an increase of 570 plans. This was followed by a 17% increase in 2024/25.

Speaking at Thursday's meeting of Northumberland County Council's family and children's services scrutiny committee, head of schools organisation Sue Aviston said: "EHCPs will continue to rise until 2030. Looking at the Government's model, it predicts there will be 6,200 EHCP learners by 2030.

"We are predicting that number to be slightly higher. We're not sitting still, we continue to grow and work."

The council has taken action in a bid to reduce the cost of SEND in recent years. This includes keeping more youngsters with EHCPs in mainstream schools, with those schools given additional support to educate more challenging pupils.

This cuts down on expensive special school places, while also keeping children in their own communities, reducing costly transport across the county. Currently, 45% of children with EHCPs are placed in independent or special schools - down from 59.8% in 2022.

The council has also developed specialist support bases (SSBs) which deliver specialist teaching and support on a mainstream school site exclusively for EHCP learners. This has mitigated further growth in more expensive school places.

In February, the Government unveiled its plan for SEND reform. Education Secretary and Houghton and Sunderland South MP Bridget Philipson set out the central plank of the Government's vision, which stated that SEND children "must be able to attend their local mainstream schools" and "have their needs met". . . .