(UK) High needs spending expected to be $29B by 2029; govt left to deal with support

Jan 22, 2026, UK Times: Rebellion threat means No 10 may water down special needs reform 

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/government-overhaul-send-reform-labour-mp-rebellion-h5m3jjxbr?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdNweggXSMWX5eQSkWcL00u33xIh8Cr5hStBb47Xgx9D1ym_LQysXFetQ5Lgwg%3D&gaa_ts=6973952f&gaa_sig=K4MzU89uBdvemSLNPGozdKgztMmwc24hfz4Tc5eKMGXCWhUF6qTkr7SsoPAAi34QVB3GvS1VeKPYcC9Jy58K9A%3D%3D 

Costs are ballooning but Downing Street officials are said to fear that plans to restrict support will not get past Labour MPs

No 10 may dilute plans to overhaul the special educational needs system over fears that a backbench rebellion would lead to another government reversal.

Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, is said to be considering raising the bar so that education, health and care plans (EHCPs), which set out the support required by children with special needs and are legally binding, are used for only the most severe and complex cases.

Downing Street officials are thought to be nervous about changing the system, particularly EHCPs. Reform is due to be outlined in a white paper that has already been delayed but is expected to be published next month.

One source said that driving through reform while not antagonising parents was difficult. “It’s still a bloody mess, a couple of weeks before the white paper. If they go ahead [with proposed changes] they could have a fight like with the welfare bill and pensioners. It’s going to be extremely challenging.”

The source said the prime minister’s officials were leaning towards tinkering around the edges of the existing system to avoid upset. “The politics are too hard. There would need to be legislation [to change the system] and that could lead to them losing another vote or yet another U-turn.”

The government has been forced into a series of major reversals in recent months as a result of the backlash from Labour MPs. However, shying away from wholesale change to the special educational needs and disabilities (Send) system will not address its ballooning budget.

Spending on high-needs rose from £7.5 billion [$10B] in 2016 to at least £12 billion [$16B] in 2025 and is forecast to exceed £21 billion [$29B] by 2029. More than 1.7 million children in England have special needs.

Phillipson has previously said she inherited a Send system that was “on its knees” and did not work for schools, parents or councils. She wants to make mainstream schools more inclusive, so more children with special needs attend their local school while getting specialist support.

Many think tanks and experts say reform is desperately needed. This mean altering or replacing EHCPs, but it is unclear whether this would affect existing recipients or only new applicants.

Many families have spent years, and thousands of pounds, battling councils to secure an EHCP for their child. If local authorities do not provide suitable plans, parents can appeal to a tribunal and, in 99 per cent of cases, they win. . . .

Georgia Gould, the schools minister with responsibility for Send, was said to have been among those pushing for a delay to an earlier version of the white paper, which was due to be published last autumn. Phillipson announced in October that it would instead be published early this year.

The Department for Education also brought in two experts: Tom Rees, who is chairing an inclusion in education expert group, and Dame Christine Lenehan, as strategic adviser on Send. . . .

The Institute for Fiscal Studies said on Wednesday that spending on Send was expected to have more than doubled in real terms between 2015 and 2028, and that rapid rises in spending had been largely accommodated by squeezing funding for mainstream schools.

The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts a £6 billion [$8B] gap between expected funding and spending on Send in 2028, equivalent to 9 per cent of the anticipated total schools budget in that year. . . .