(England) Kids face 7yr wait for ASD dx; plan to identify autism in 5yos

July 17, 2025, Observer:  How to fix special needs education 

https://observer.co.uk/news/national/article/ground-breaking-study-identifies-children-likely-to-be-diagnosed-autistic-and-offers-early-help 

A new scheme allows early autism support for children as young as five, but future funding of Send provision is uncertain as government looks at reforming sector

In some parts of England, children are facing a seven-year wait for an autism diagnosis, compounding their problems at school and increasing emotional difficulties. Now, a ground-breaking project is sending specialist teams directly into primary schools, cross-checking government data to identify the pupils most at risk and delivering extra support within weeks.

The Born in Bradford study has been tracking 13,800 children born at the Bradford Royal Infirmary between March 2007 and December 2010. Using datasets from across the public sector it comes up with innovative solutions to tricky social problems.

The researchers analysed data about children who had autism diagnosed by the NHS at the age of 11 and discovered that many of the traits were already apparent in the information collected routinely by schools in reception.

They found they could predict with remarkable accuracy which children would later receive an autism diagnosis on the basis of the teacher’s assessment at the age of six. Pupils with a low score on what is known as the Early Years Foundation Stage Profile – an evaluation carried out on all five-year-olds across England – were 50 times more likely to eventually be diagnosed with autism.

The team then looked at the current cohort of five-year-olds, using the same metrics to identify those at risk of having additional needs. These children were formally assessed at their school rather than in a hospital. Almost all had a neurodivergent condition meaning support could be put in place immediately before difficulties escalated.

The programme, which has already been successfully piloted in 10 primary schools, is being rolled out across Bradford and could eventually be adopted around England.

Mark Mon-Williams, chair of cognitive psychology at Leeds University and deputy chair of the Department for Education’s science advisory council, who helps lead the Born in Bradford study, says a mindset change is required to create a more “inclusive” education system. He says: “There are a lot of very straightforward approaches that a school can take which make the difference between a child feeling they don’t belong and ultimately just disengaging from the whole education system or feeling included and achieving. All the evidence says that the earlier you can get in and provide the support, the better the outcomes.”

Reform of special educational needs and disabilities (Send) provision is also gearing up to be the next big political battle for the government. Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, wants to drive through changes that would allow more Send pupils to be taught in mainstream schools. She is planning to introduce additional training for teachers and more specialist units for those pupils within mainstream schools.

A greater priority will be put on early intervention. The new Best Start family centres will all have a trained Send specialist.

But Phillipson has failed to guarantee that parents will continue to have the same legally enforceable rights to ensure their children get the help they need. There could be changes to education, health and care plans (EHCPs) that guarantee additional funding and extra support for Send pupils. Parents could also lose the right to choose a particular school with special provisions for their child.

Since 2015 the number of young people with an EHCP has more than doubled. The cost of Send provision has reached £12bn [$11B] a year, up from £8bn [$10.7B] in 2021-2.

Councils are spending more than £1bn [$1.3B] a year on taxis to transport Send pupils to and from special schools. Many have accumulated multi-billion pound deficits.

There is a postcode lottery of provision and the system is overly complex, bureaucratic and adversarial.

Katie Ghose, chief executive of the charity Kids and vice-chair of the Disabled Children’s Partnership, says: “Everyone agrees the Send system is broken and needs to change.” But she adds: “The government should be honest about the lessons from the welfare reforms which left thousands of people in fear of poverty instead of seeing practical pathways to jobs they could do.”

Senior Labour figures are warning that the plan risks becoming “welfare mark two”, with dozens of MPs prepared to rebel against what they see as further Treasury-driven cost-cutting measures.

The National Autistic Society has warned that legal rights for children who need extra support must be retained.

A report from the Centre for Young Lives, to be published this week, found that growing numbers of vulnerable children are not having their needs met. More than 1.7 million young people in England were identified as having special educational needs in 2023-4, up 34% since 2017-18. In the four years since the pandemic, there has been a 341% increase in the number of children waiting for an autism assessment.

Ministers are working hard to avoid another revolt on the scale of the welfare rebellion. This week Keir Starmer suspended four Labour MPs who voted against the planned cuts to disability benefits. . . .

 ‘We need to be clear that this is not about saving money, it’s about improving outcomes for children with special educational needs’

Department for Education source

But the issue has caused tension around Whitehall, with Downing Street worried about the political danger of pressing ahead with another controversial reform.

One senior educationalist says: “The mood music from the profession is we have to do this because what’s happening at the moment is not in the interests of children. Kids are sitting in taxis for two hours a day and getting terrible provision. Bridget Phillipson is holding firm. Meanwhile No 10 is wobbling incredibly because they think they won’t get it through the backbenches.”

In January, almost 640,000 children in England had an EHCP, 11% higher than the previous year and the equivalent of almost an entire school year cohort across the country.

The rise follows a new legal framework, introduced in 2014, which means that schools are now only guaranteed top-up funding for children with EHCPs. Parents were also given greater choice over their child’s education, including the right to request a specific special school. Independent schools – some charging more than £130,000 [$174K] a year – were included and so private equity companies moved in. . . .

At the moment, parents say the education system too often sees Send pupils as a problem to be managed rather than recognising their unique talents. Tom Rees, chief of Ormiston Academies Trust, who is leading the government review of Send provision, has a son, Freddie, with Down’s Syndrome. He has described how the current system makes parents feel that they should be looking to create a “better version” of their children rather than accepting and celebrating them as they are.

The missed potential is huge. Only three in 10 autistic people of working age are in employment. Yet many highly successful individuals with a neurodivergent condition see their differently wired brain as an advantage. . . .