England: Falling enrollment/rising SPED costs; 2/3 special schools over capacity
- The end of childhood
- Nov 8
- 2 min read
Nov 6, 2025, tes: Government ‘will struggle to fix SEND crisis by 2029’
The government will struggle to solve the crisis in special educational needs and disabilities support or close the disadvantage-related attainment gap under its current spending plans, a new policy analysis warns.
The analysis, by the Institute for Government (IfG) think tank, says that ministers’ approach to special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) risks being disjointed and their plans for tackling teacher shortages are “unfocused”.
“Unfortunately for the government, what is clear is that balancing these pressures will be extremely difficult within the budget Labour has set for the coming parliament [up to 2029]”, the report warns.
It says the government will need a more joined-up approach if its “opportunity mission” is to succeed.
The IfG’s findings come in a performance tracker report focused on falling pupil numbers, the SEND system and staffing and cost pressures in schools.
Rising SEND costs
The think tank warns that the SEND system is a particular concern. Pupils with education, health and care plans (EHCPs) are now missing a full day of secondary school every week on average, it says.
Meanwhile, soaring SEND costs are putting the financial sustainability of councils at risk, the report highlights.
It notes that high-needs funding - money dedicated to meeting special educational needs and alternative provision - grew by two-thirds between 2012-13 and 2025-26, from £6.7 billion to £11.1 billion. . . .
Education secretary Bridget Phillipson has announced that the government’s White Paper, setting out its SEND reforms, has now been delayed until 2026.
The IfG report warns that government decision making has appeared disjointed, with the White Paper announcement coming after key funding decisions in the spending review and at a different time to an announcement about extending the statutory override to keep SEND deficits off local councils’ books.
Falling pupil rolls
The analysis also highlights the financial strain on the system caused by falling pupil rolls. It says that there are now the equivalent of 23,000 primary school classrooms empty, while two-thirds of state special schools are over capacity.
“If managed well, lower demand could free up resources for that desperately needed SEND provision. Given the fragmented local governance of the school system, effective management of capacity will likely require strategic direction by ministers,” the report says.
Teacher recruitment plan ‘unfocused’
It adds that tackling teacher shortages is another priority for the government, but “its current plan is unfocused”. And it says that even if the government fulfilled its initial pledge to recruit 6,500 new teachers, it is unclear whether this would, in fact, meet demand.
“The government will need to pivot to a far more joined-up approach on tackling these structural issues if the opportunity mission is to succeed,” the analysis says.
Amber Dellar, IfG researcher and report author, said: “The government has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. The system’s slow adjustment to falling pupil numbers further stretches that budget, leaving money increasingly tied up in empty classrooms. . . .
Comments