(ENGLAND) Explosion in SPED due to kids with ASD/ADHD; "Reflects increased awareness of conditions"

Oct 3, 2025, IFS: Rapid rise in children receiving support for special educational needs and disabilities drives spending ever higher

https://ifs.org.uk/news/rapid-rise-children-receiving-support-special-educational-needs-and-disabilities-drives

The share of children receiving SEND support has nearly doubled in a decade, with spending set to reach £21 billion [$28B] by 2029

A doubling in the share of children receiving support for special educational needs and disabilities in schools and through the benefit system has driven a dramatic and ongoing increase in spending. We can expect higher spending on children to become higher spending on young adults in the near future. Specifically:

One-in-twenty (5.2%) pupils aged under 16 in England have an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP), the highest level of support for children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). This share has almost doubled (from 2.7%) over the last decade.

One-in-fourteen (7.2%) children receive child disability living allowance (CDLA), a cash benefit for children with disabilities, up from 3.4% a decade ago. Among 15-year-olds, one-in-ten now receive CDLA.

Combined, spending on EHCPs and CDLA is now £16 billion [$22B] . We forecast that it will reach £21 billion [$28B] by 2029, more than twice the real-terms spend in 2016.

There is worrying evidence that children with EHCPs or CDLA experience poorer outcomes in early adulthood, bringing longer-term risks for those children and for the exchequer. Of 15-year-olds who received both forms of support in 2014, half were not in education, employment or training (NEET) at age 22 and three-quarters were receiving adult disability benefits. 

Rising numbers of children with SEND places particular pressure on councils, which have a statutory duty to provide whatever school support is set out in EHCPs. Costs have exceeded funding provided by central government since at least 2016, leading councils to have built up debts that are forecast to reach £8 billion by 2028. This is not financially sustainable. Given the scale and growth in high needs spending, and the fiscal risks that it poses, the Office for Budget Responsibility should produce and publish annual forecasts for high needs spending and high needs deficits.

These are among the findings of a new chapter published today from this year’s IFS Green Budget, funded by the Nuffield Foundation and produced in association with Barclays. 

Darcey Snape, Research Economist at IFS and an author of the chapter, said:

‘An increasingly large share of young people are getting targeted educational and cash support to help them with special educational needs or disabilities. There is worryingly little evidence on what forms of support deliver the best outcomes for these young people now and into the future. 

‘A clear risk is that the big increases in spending on children will be followed by higher spending on young adults. A forthcoming government White Paper is expected to set out reforms to Education, Health and Care Plans this autumn. Given that child disability living allowance has been left broadly unchanged since its introduction more than 30 years ago, there is a strong case for this being reviewed too.’

Mark Franks, Director of Welfare at the Nuffield Foundation, said:

‘The current system for supporting and funding children with additional needs is fragmented and hasn’t kept pace with the changing needs of the population. As demand and costs continue to rise, there is a strong case for holistic review of the system to ensure resources are directed where they are needed most and can achieve the greatest benefit, in a situation where significant constraints on the public finances will remain.’

Additional findings from the chapter include:

Government spending on children with high needs in English schools has risen from £7½ billion in 2016 to £12 billion in 2025, a real-terms rise of 66%. We forecast that, without reforms to the system, high needs spending will grow by a further £3 billion [$4B]by 2029, adding to risks for council finances and the government’s fiscal plans.

Spending on CDLA has doubled from £2 billion in 2016 to £4 billion in 2025. Official forecasts suggest that CDLA spending will increase by another £2 billion to £6 billion by 2029.

Growth in the number of children receiving support relating to autism and to attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) can explain much of the rise in both EHCPs and CDLA claims. The number of children with EHCPs for autism spectrum disorder has almost tripled from 54,000 in 2015 to 149,000 in 2025, accounting for 40% of the total increase in EHCPs. The number of children with EHCPs for ‘social, emotional and mental health needs’, which includes ADHD, has also more than doubled, from 28,000 to 71,000.

Similarly, most of the increase in CDLA claims is due to increased claims in three categories of conditions: learning difficulties (including autism), behavioural disorders and ADHD.

Increases in the number of children with autism and ADHD diagnoses can be seen across many high-income countries. A large part of this rise reflects increased awareness of the conditions.