ENGLAND: 40% of children will be OBESE by 2034: study; ultra-processed food blamed

June 24, 2025, Clinical Trials: Obesity in children will rise rapidly in England 

Royal Society for Public Health modelling predicts that 40% of primary school leavers will be obese by 2034/35.

The UK is in the middle of an obesity epidemic. This is affecting children and adolescents at an alarming rate. Obesity causes significant impairments to quality of life and increases the risk of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and cancer in the long term. Children between 5 to 17 years who are overweight are more likely to struggle with their body weight when they are adults.

Predictors of obesity include diet, exercise, genetics and other social determinants of health.

A recent study by the Royal Society for Public Health (RSPH) published in The Guardian predicts that the number of children with obesity is set to worsen across 90% of the country, with the majority of children in England either overweight or obese by 2035. If the modelling prediction accurately reflects the obesity trend, urgent action is required.

Data from the National Child Measurement Programme in England shows that one-third of children leaving primary school are overweight and 20% of children are living with obesity. Recent modelling by the Royal Society for Public Health (RSPH) predicts that 40% of children about to leave primary school will be obese by 2034/35. The number of people with obesity will increase across England, in both deprived and non-deprived areas, and GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity in the UK will increase steadily from 12.76 million cases in 2025 to 13.09 million cases in 2031.

Approximately 1.25 million cases of obesity in 2025 were in children aged five to 17 years. However, if the prediction from RSPH turns out to be accurate, GlobalData’s forecast will prove to be an underestimation of cases.

There is a strong relationship between obesity and the consumption of ultra-processed, unhealthy food. The low cost, accessibility and high concentration of sugar and saturated fat in these ultra-processed foods make them a primary risk factor for obesity, especially in children. Ultra-processed foods, which lack nutritional value, are also more commonly consumed by people of lower socioeconomic status. Other causes of obesity are a sedentary lifestyle and genetics. Unhealthy eating is commonly established at an early age then continues into adulthood.

The obesity epidemic is a health threat that needs to be addressed as a priority. The government needs to regulate the consumption of ultra-processed food with higher taxes. People should be encouraged to exercise, and necessary support such as the availability of affordable nutritious food should be provided. There is a general perception and stigma that obese people lack the self-discipline and control to maintain a healthy weight, but this needs to be changed as environmental factors and genetics play a significant role and are beyond an individual’s control. It is vital that health education on nutritious food should be provided, and that children are encouraged to eat healthily.