VA: 24% increase in disabled preschoolers in 2 yrs; "statistical artifact"?

May 23, 2025, Bacon Rebellion: Preschoolers Gone Wild?

The number of Virginia preschoolers with disabilities has increased 24% of the past two years. The response of the Virginia Board of Education? Hire more special education teachers!

Voting 7 to 0, the Board directed the Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) to remove the requirement for special-ed teachers to do graduate-level coursework as a means of boosting the supply by at least 70 positions, reports The Virginia Mercury.

I suppose the action makes sense… if there is a genuine need for more special-ed teachers. But let’s think this through.

A 24% increase in the number of preschoolers with disabilities in just two years?

What the heck is going on?

Unless some mind-eating virus is circulating undetected among toddlers, that increase cannot be a naturally occurring phenomenon. There may be psycho-social forces at work in American society to account for the rise in such disabilities as autism or “emotional disability,” but they could not account for such a surge in such a short period of time. Almost certainly, the increase is a statistical artifact of the way we define and measure disabilities.

My CoPilot AI companion suggests that a couple of factors might account for the jump. For instance, advances in early childhood assessments and increased awareness of parents and educators might be leading to “more accurate diagnoses.”

Alternatively, let me suggest that, whether accurate or not, parents and schools might be seeking more diagnoses. In other words, the problem may be not with our preschoolers but with parents and institutions subject to intellectual fads. But neither of those explanations, not matter how worth examining, are likely to explain such a massive surge over such a short period.

Another AI-suggested possibility is that adjustments have been made to how disabilities are classified and reported. That sounds more plausible. A bureaucratic change in definitions could lead to a spike.

Before the Board of Education reacts as if there is some kind of emergency, it would behoove board members to understand what is going on.

If the jump in disabilities reflects real-world changes in the mental and emotional health of preschoolers, we are in the midst of an unprecedented yet unrecognized social crisis for which hiring 70 more special-ed teachers seems inadequate.

If instead we are seeing a statistical artifact, then one might question whether any action is called for at all.