Sept 27, 2021, iNews: Autism diagnosis ‘stretched to breaking point’ with numbers jumping 20-fold over last two decades https://inews.co.uk/news/health/autism-diagnosis-figures-stretched-breaking-point-increase-1219876
The number of people diagnosed with autism has jumped more than 20-fold in the past two decades, with a marked increase seen among girls and women, a study shows.
In 1998 just 3,072 patients had a diagnosis of autism recorded in England, but in 2018 the figure had ballooned to 65,665, with a greater rise among females and adults.
Adult diagnoses have been a particular feature of the rise and the University of Exeter researchers who carried out the study believe the huge increase in cases is attributable primarily to better identification.
There has been a drive towards the referral of more women and girls in recent years, cutting across the popular belief that autism is more often a “male” disorder.
The study, published in the Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, is the first of its kind to analyse the time trend of autism diagnosis in British people by developmental stage, level of severity and by gender, over a 20-year period.
However, while the study was broadly welcomed, there were concerns that diagnosis of the condition has been “stretched to breaking point”.
To reach their findings, the University of Exeter researchers compared the rates of autism in 9 million patients at GP practices in England.
They said the exponential increase is likely to be an effect of increasing recognition of the condition, but an actual increase in autism incidence cannot be ruled out.
A UK policy introduced in 2009 to invest in adult assessment centres may also be behind the rise in adult diagnosis, they added.
Another factor could be the 2013 decision to scrap the separate diagnosis of Asperger’s, a form of autism that does not have attendant intellectual disability.
Diagnosing autism in younger children is also complex, meaning many people who live with the condition are not officially recognised until later in life.
Lead author Ginny Russell, from the University of Exeter, said: “As there is not really a plausible reason why autism should increase more in adults and females our study suggests the change is probably due to increased identification, and not more people with neurodevelopmental disorders per se.
“However, autism is not like a continent awaiting discovery. The definition of what constitutes autism has changed over time, and females and adults were not often thought of as having autism 20 years ago.
“The vocal work of charities and media coverage, combined with changes in policy, has led to more assessment centres for adults, and an autism narrative that many women and girls identify with. Consequently demand for diagnosis has never been higher.”
According to the National Autistic Society, 700,000 people – roughly 1 per cent of the population – are on the autistic spectrum in the UK.
Uta Frith, emeritus professor of cognitive development at University College London, said: “This is an important study documenting the explosive jump in diagnoses of autism over the last two decades.
“It strongly suggests that the diagnosis of autism has been stretched to breaking point and has outgrown its purpose.
“If the purpose is to predict what an individual’s needs are, this is no longer possible. Researchers need to think hard about how to disentangle the underlying conditions in individuals now all labelled autistic.
“Without such an effort, research into the causes of autism will become meaningless
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