(UK) 80% increase in SPED numbers since 2019

Nov 28, 2025, Grand Pinnacle Tribune: UK Schools Face Funding Crisis As SEND Costs Soar

New government plans to absorb special needs costs spark warnings of budget cuts, possible strikes, and deepening deficits for schools and councils.

https://evrimagaci.org/gpt/uk-schools-face-funding-crisis-as-send-costs-soar-517968#google_vignette

Britain’s education system is facing a storm of uncertainty and mounting financial pressure, as government plans to overhaul funding for children with special educational needs and disabilities (Send) trigger warnings from local authorities, teaching unions, and parents alike.

The latest Budget announcements, made by Chancellor Rachel Reeves on November 27, 2025, have set off a wave of concern about whether the government’s new approach will shore up or further destabilize already stretched school budgets across England and Wales.

At the heart of the controversy is the government’s proposal to absorb the entire cost of Send provision within departmental budgets by 2028-29—a move that will remove these expenses from local authorities and place them squarely on the books of central government. According to the BBC, this change is forecasted to cost an additional £6 billion, a figure that has left many wondering where the money will come from and what it might mean for mainstream school funding.

Until now, local authorities have received a dedicated schools grant from the Department for Education (DfE) to fund Send support. However, the relentless rise in demand for services—driven in part by an 80% increase in pupils entitled to council-funded care since 2019, especially those diagnosed with autism and ADHD—has forced councils to spend billions more than they receive. The number of young people with council-funded education, health, and care plans (EHCPs) has doubled across England since 2016, according to the BBC.

This surge has left councils with ballooning deficits, kept off their official books only by a “statutory override” introduced in 2020 and now extended to 2027-28.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has sounded the alarm, forecasting that by the time the override expires, councils will have amassed a cumulative deficit of £14 billion [$19B]. The OBR warns that, unless new savings are found, the government’s plan to take on Send costs could result in a 4.9% fall in mainstream school spending per pupil—about £400 [$533] less per child each year—instead of the 0.5% increase the government had previously planned. “The Government has not set out how this would be addressed and so it represents a significant fiscal risk,” the OBR noted, as reported by the Daily Mail.

The DfE, however, has pushed back against these projections, with a spokesperson insisting, “This claim is incorrect – we are clear that any deficit will be absorbed within the overall Government budget. These projections also do not account for the much-needed Send reforms this Government will bring forward.” The department maintains that upcoming reforms, due to be detailed in early 2026, will deliver both financial sustainability and earlier support for children with Send.

Despite these reassurances, teaching unions and local officials remain deeply skeptical. Daniel Kebede, general secretary of the National Education Union (NEU), declared, “The National Education Union will not accept the continued underfunding of our schools. We will not accept another pay cut. Our national executive will meet this Saturday to decide next steps. We must convince this Government to change course – even if that means balloting for strike action. We must – and we will – save our schools.” The NEU’s executive meeting, scheduled for November 29, 2025, could pave the way for industrial action if funding concerns aren’t addressed.

Pepe Di'Iasio, general secretary of the headteachers' union ASCL, echoed the alarm: “Several local authorities are seemingly at risk of financial collapse as a result of deficits relating to SEND spending. Were this risk to be transferred onto schools, in the form of budget cuts to cover the cost of SEND provision being absorbed into departmental spending, it would be catastrophic.” . . .

As the debate intensifies, families, educators, and local officials await concrete answers. For now, the only certainty is that Britain’s schools are bracing for a turbulent period, with the stakes no less than the futures of thousands of vulnerable children and the financial health of the nation’s education system.