SCOTLAND: ONE IN 23 CHILDREN WITH AUTISM; due to 'increased awareness, improved diagnosis'

Oct 15, 2025, Surge in child disability welfare claims since Covid 

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/welfare-challenge-as-child-disability-surges-after-covid-mkqdpln36

A rise of 67 per cent in reported special needs, particularly autism, has prompted experts to estimate that about 115,000 children are eligible for benefits

Child disability in Scotland has surged since Covid with a sharp rise in autism diagnoses.

As recently as 2019-20 just 7 per cent of youngsters north of the border were reported as being disabled, according to UK government statistics based on family surveys. By 2023-24 this figure had leapt to 11.7 per cent, almost as high as numbers recorded in England.

The sharp increase has left Scottish officials scratching their heads about just how many children could or should be eligible for benefits.

In a detailed report published this week, statisticians admitted they did not know how to calculate the take-up rate for Scotland’s child disability payment.

What they do know is that in June this year, just under 92,000 children and young people received a total of £43.7 million [$5.9M] to help with caring costs or mobility, according to Social Security Scotland. The bill for these payments since they were devolved in 2022 has reached £1.2 billion [$1.6B].

In their report, government researchers pointed to sources that suggest the number of eligible children could range from 55,000 to 165,000 with the real figure lying somewhere in the middle.

They said the family resources survey conducted by the British government, which showed nearly 12 per of Scottish children were disabled, might be the best guide. Such figures, they said, would suggest 115,000 are eligible for the payment.

The Scottish Fiscal Commission, which estimates government spending, has forecast a rise in uptake of the benefit to reach “110,000 in 2026-27 and then remain broadly stable for the following four years”.

Government researchers are less confident in their predictions. “There is a fundamental challenge in comparing self-reported data on disability with eligibility criteria for a disability benefit where award decisions are made by case managers in line with decision-making guides,” they said.

Experts do not think there has been an actual rise in child disability: they believe previously invisible conditions are now better diagnosed.

There has been a long and steep rise in the number of Scottish schoolchildren identified as being on the autistic spectrum, from 0.1 per cent in 2003 to 4.3 per cent in 2023. [1in 23 children]

Nicholas Watson, a professor of disability studies at Glasgow University, admitted this raised challenges.

“I think it is fair to conclude that this rise is largely the result of increased awareness and improved diagnosis,” he said of autism. “Of course all of these children will not be eligible for child disability benefit but all will be defined as disabled under the terms of the Equality Act.”

Speaking about the latest government report, he added: “The key issue is where the government set the bar for eligibility and as the paper makes clear the cost implications are not insignificant.”

Under the SNP, the Scottish government has been seen as overseeing a “less onerous” welfare system for adults.

The auditor-general for Scotland last month said the adult disability payment (ADP), the most significant benefit devolved to Holyrood over the past decade, offered the clearest example of the stark financial implications of adopting what the SNP described as a “radically different system that is based on dignity, fairness and respect”.

ADP, the equivalent of the personal independence payment elsewhere in the UK, is expected to cost the Scottish government £770 million [$1B] more annually than it receives in Treasury funding within four years, after SNP ministers adopted a less onerous application process and “light-touch” reviews.

The rising cost of disability benefits, alongside other costly welfare policies such as the creation of the Scottish child payment, is on course to create a funding gap of £2 billion [$2.7B] by the end of the decade, the watchdog said.