(New Zealand) 2009 to 2023, "ASD prevalence had more than tripled"
Celia Falchi has witnessed the effect that undiagnosed ADHD can have on a person, from being told they’re “too loud” or simply “not trying hard enough”.
She has seen the psychological harm that can fester, and how many gaps there are in the health system.
As a Wellington-based psychologist, a parent of children with ADHD, and “ADHDer” herself, Falchi has witnessed the “enormous personal cost” of a health system that isn’t prepared for increasing demand. . . .
The rates of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) have been rising internationally.
Using information taken from three large databases between 2009 and 2023, associate professor and psychiatrist Ben Beaglehole found that New Zealand’s ASD prevalence had more than tripled.
Māori rates of ASD were lower than non-Māori rates in 2009, but by 2023 they had increased fivefold, overtaking non-Māori rates.
“The increases for children and adults show no signs of abating,” Beaglehole said.
The increasing rates of ASD and ADHD are not new news in New Zealand. It is estimated more than 280,000 Kiwis have ADHD, according to ADHD NZ. The proportion of Kiwi kids with ADHD has more than doubled in the past decade to one in 17, according to New Zealand Health Survey statistics.
But despite these increases being widely recognised, accessibility to diagnosis for ASD and ADHD has been notoriously difficult in NZ. In 2024, adults in NZ were waiting more than six months for a diagnosis. In July this year, The Post reported that more than 3000 Kiwi kids were waiting more than four months for an initial assessment.
With rates of both ASD and ADHD steadily rising, with no sign of slowing down, many health practitioners say NZ’s health system is not ready.
“I don’t believe we are adequately prepared, we still have major gaps in publicly funded assessments, professional knowledge and appropriate support,” said Falchi.
Beaglehole presented his research at the annual Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists (RANZCP) conference in early October.
He said ASD was more common among males and people living in more deprived areas, with males also diagnosed at a higher rate than females. By 2023, the rate of ASD was 1.3% for children and 0.14% for adults.
“Our data suggest that increasing rates of ASD will continue, and it is unclear when they will stabilise,” the study stated.
“The result of this increase is increasing presentations to physical, mental, and disability services in the years to come.”
Falchi has also seen a “significant increase” in the number of people seeking ADHD assessments, especially in recent years. . . .
“Public services are under enormous pressure, and private assessments can be expensive and out of reach,” he said.
RANZCP chair and psychiatrist Hiran Thabrew says NZ needs to train and support more health professionals to provide high-quality ADHD and ASD assessment and care. Photo: Nigel Welch
He said both ASD and ADHD were still poorly understood, with approaches to treatment and care often inconsistent. Like Falchi, he said many people with autism may be treated for mental health conditions, without their underlying autism actually being recognised.
Dane Dougan, CEO of Autism NZ, said he has seen an increase in diagnoses, but services had not expanded to meet the growing need.
He said several needs assessment coordinators across NZ have reported being “overwhelmed” with referrals for autistic people, with waitlists becoming “very long”.
“We’re aware that many people are seeking support but are unable to access it.”
On February 1, 2026, the government implemented new prescribing rules for ADHD, which meant that specialist GPs and nurse practitioners could diagnose ADHD and give people access to treatment.
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