(Ireland) SPED to increase by one-third; 6% decline in overall enrollment

 Oct 28, 2026, Number of children needing special classes set to rise despite fall in overall enrolment – The Irish Times

The number of primary school children requiring special classes will increase by almost one-third over the next 15 years, even with the number of enrolments expected to fall by about 6 per cent in the same period.

A Department of Education demographic paper forecasts a rise in the number of pupils in special primary classes and schools, from about 25,100 in 2025/26 to nearly 33,400 by 2040/41.

This is despite the fact the number of junior infant enrolments is set to fall from almost 59,000 to about 55,400 over the same period.

The projections are part of an analysis for the department looking at demographic change and its implications for the school system in the run-up to 2050. . . .

The data illustrates the sharp rise in demand for special education that the department is having to plan for, with a drop in overall population numbers not relieving any pressure.

[122% increase in SPED classes over six years]

There are almost 4,000 special classes across primary and post-primary schools in the State. This number has almost doubled over the past six years, starting at about 1,800 in 2020, as a rising number of children receive diagnoses.

These classes are designed for children with special educational needs, including autism, and have a lower student-to-teacher ratio than mainstream classes.

There are between six and eight pupils per teacher in a special class, compared to about 23 students per teacher in a mainstream class. . . .

The demographic paper also shows the number of pupils entering first year of secondary school is expected to fall by about 17 per cent over the next 15 years, going from 72,800 in 2025/26 to just over 60,200 by 2040/41.

The paper said about 25 per cent of the population was aged under 20 last year, but this would fall to about 18 per cent by the middle of the century. The proportion of people aged 65 and over is predicted to rise from about 16 per cent to 26 per cent during the same period. . . .

It said demand for special education continued to rise and that plans were in place to support all children who had additional needs. . . .