England: 'Pupil numbers overall now falling'; 'continued rise in number with special needs'

June 11, 2025, Schools Week: Spending review 2025: What’s in it for schools?

School funding and capital cash rise (a bit), Ofsted budget boost, school library scheme and a schools white paper

The chancellor has set out government spending plans for the next three years, boosting the schools budget, extending the rebuilding programme and increasing Ofsted’s funding.

But the school funding increase will only amount to a roughly 1 per cent average real-terms increase to per-pupil funding each year.

It also has to cover cash for SEND reforms, the free school meals expansion and next year’s pay award.

Here’s what you need to know.

1. £4.7bn [$6.4B] for schools, but just 1% per-pupil funding rise

Documents confirm the core schools budget will increase from £64.8 billion this year to £69.5 billion [$94B]  in 2028, a cash-terms increase of £4.7 billion by the end of the spending review period.

However, this includes the £410 million [$556M] annual cost of the recently announced extension of free school meals, and the £615 million [$834M\ allocated earlier in the spring to contribute to next year’s 4 per cent teacher pay rise. . . .

However, pupil numbers overall are now falling, which “would in principle allow a rise in spending per pupil”, he added.

The government has also described the rise in funding as a £2 billion [$2.7B] “real-terms” increase, but this is using 2023-24, the year before the election, as a baseline, so is misleading.

Unions have welcomed the “small” increase, but said schools will still face difficult decisions in the short term.

2. … but SEND rise means this could become real-terms freeze

The Treasury documents also state that the government has set aside £760 million [$1B] for “reform of the SEND system”, with most of this falling in the 2026-27 year.

This comes from the £3.25 billion public services “transformation fund”.

However, the DfE confirmed to Schools Week that this money is part of the increase in the core schools budget.

This, alongside the continued rise in the number of pupils with special needs, could actually mean “the best schools could hope for is a real-terms freeze in mainstream school funding per pupil”, Luke Sibieta, from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said.

It is also expected that the government will need to provide more funding for its SEND reforms, with councils pushing for high-needs deficits to be wiped.

The DfE has said the £760 million [$1B] is just “one part of the investment government will make in SEND reform, not the entirety”.

3. Schools white paper in autumn (and not just for SEND)

The government will set out its SEND reform plans in a schools white paper, to be published in the autumn.

The reforms will “make the system more inclusive and improve outcomes for all children and young people”, the documents claimed.

“The government will also set out further details on supporting local authorities as the government transitions to a reformed system as part of the upcoming local government funding reform consultation,” the Treasury added.

But Schools Week also understands that the white paper will be broader than just SEND, and include wider school reforms.

4. More rebuilding cash, and scheme extended  .  . .

5. … and maintenance cash to rise

Spending on school maintenance and repairs will also rise by around £400 million to around £2.3 billion a year by 2029-30.

However, the document said this rise was only “in line with inflation”.

Meanwhile, around £2.6 billion will be spent from 2026‑27 to 2029-30 to fund “provision of mainstream school places needed to meet future demographic needs”.

In 2021, the spending review allocated the same amount of money for new provision – which was focused on places for children with SEND.

Sibieta said the increase in school capital spending overall equated to a 7 per cent real-terms increase, which reversed real-terms cuts since 2015.

6. Ofsted funding boost for MAT inspections

Despite reports Ofsted was unlikely to secure more cash at the spending review, documents show its budget will rise from just under £140 million in 2025-26, to nearly £159.4 million in 2026-27.

This will fund the inspectorate to “support the government’s mission to break down barriers to opportunity, including developing and implementing multi-academy trust inspections to increase accountability of MAT leaders”, the Treasury documents stated.

It’s not clear exactly how much extra this is, as Ofsted’s budget was actually £148 million in 2024-25, and will also fall back down to £153 million in 2028-29.

No further details have been provided on what the cash will go towards.

But Lynsey Holzer, CEO of The Active Learning Trust, said the choice of funding of projects “doesn’t feel like it hangs together in terms of a well understood strategy from the government”.

She said it “would seem interesting timing, since we still don’t have clarity on the new schedule for school inspections, so funding a second stream may be a moot point

Labour has pledged to recruit an additional 6,500 specialist teachers to shortage subjects by the end of this Parliament, and recently confirmed this would not include primary teachers.