(England) Local councils expect SPED plans to double to one in every 10 students
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Schools and councils in England are expecting the proportion of children with special needs plans to double to one in 10, as families rush to secure support before changes come in.
Headteachers have reported an “unreal” surge in applications for education, health and care plans (EHCPs) mandating support for needs or disabilities such as speech and learning difficulties, autism or ADHD. In 2025, just one in 20 school-age children had EHCPs.
The number of pupils with EHCPs has risen by more than 11% in each of the last two years, and projections by local authorities seen by the Guardian are anticipating double-digit annual increases over the next three years. Similar levels nationally would translate to almost 10% of all school-age children having an EHCP in 2029.
Such a rapid rise would outstrip the government’s own forecasts and eat into funding for improving specialist support in mainstream schools, undermining plans for reform while straining school and council budgets.
School leaders said special educational needs (Send) coordinators had worked through the summer to deal with the influx of requests for assessments, as secondary schools reported that many more year 7 students were arriving with EHCPs or applications.
One called the volume of requests “unreal”; other schools said they expect to have double the number of incoming pupils with EHCPs as the new academic year began.
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