(Australia) Parents fear changes to nat'l health insurance eliminating mild/moderate autism
- Apr 13
- 5 min read
April 11, 2026, The children feared to be at highest risk of missing out under Thriving Kids
In short:
The first phase of the $4 billion [$2.8B US] NDIS alternative for kids with "mild to moderate" developmental delays or autism is months away from starting.
Thriving Kids is a key measure of the government's aims to reign in the growth of the NDIS, which now costs more than $50 billion [$35B US] every year.
Parents and experts are concerned kids with "moderate" needs could slip between the cracks of both systems.
When Christian and Nik Tran joined the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), mum Alice was relieved they would finally get the support needed to live a life like any other kid.
Nik, 8, has been diagnosed with level two autism, while Christian, 5, has developmental delay and is waiting on confirmatiof his own level two autism diagnosis.
Ms Tran said the boys needed support doing up buttons, tying shoelaces, regulating emotions and navigating complex behaviours which could quickly escalate if not managed.
She said they required constant supervision.
"I always try to make sure I've eliminated everything that could trigger them … but the world is a trigger," Ms Tran said.
Christian and Nik receive NDIS funding for psychology, as well as occupational and speech therapy, all of which Alice said had made a huge difference.
"I've already seen some really positive changes with [Christian] being able to explain and word his emotions and how he's feeling," she said.
Ms Tran has quit work to care for her boys full time — including attending school with Christian to support him in class — and is grateful for the assistance from the NDIS.
But in the future, it is expected children like Christian and Nik will not be supported by the NDIS, but by Thriving Kids — a $4 billion [$2.8B US] pillar of the federal government's efforts to rein in the growth of the NDIS, which has been projected to cost more than $50 billion [$35B US] this financial year.
Thriving Kids will replace the NDIS for children under nine with "mild to moderate" developmental delays and autism.
Children with "severe, permanent disability" — including developmental delay and autism — will continue to be eligible for the NDIS, subject to usual reassessments.
Thriving Kids
States and territories will run their own versions of the program, underpinned by a national model.
That model was recommended by a
n advisory group that included experts from a range of fields.
The focus is on identifying support needs and providing a baseline level of support immediately, which can later be escalated if required. . . . .
The first phase of Thriving Kids will begin in October, with full rollout of services expected by January 2028.
'So much you can't see on paper'
With just months to go before the program begins and the finer details of how it will practically work yet to be finalised, experts have started to voice concerns about kids with "moderate needs" slipping through the cracks.
"Thriving Kids is an excellent program on paper, but it's all going to come down to the implementation," said David Trembath, head of autism research at the Kids Research Institute Australia.
"My main concern is that there might be a group of children who are somewhere between Thriving Kids and the NDIS who have the potential to miss out on the supports and services that they need."
Professor Trembath — who helped create national guidelines for supporting autistic children — said it was "impossible to draw a clean line" between "low, moderate or high" support needs.
He said a "moderate" child's needs were particularly difficult to identify, and they also fluctuate over time and depend on external environments.
"When they're in a context such as home where parents … have put in place strategies to make life easier, simpler and more predictable, they can look like they're doing really well," Professor Trembath said.
"But then jump into the community, go to a playground … and suddenly the needs can be much more obvious because those strategies and the supports aren't in place."
Ms Tran said no two days were ever the same for Christian and Nik.
"On paper, they look like they're in that moderate level … but there's just so much you can't see on paper with autism and disability," she said.
"They're with me being supported and supervised 24/7 … I'm not sure I would call that moderate."
Professor Trembath said providing children with the right support at the right time made an "enormous difference" to how much was required in the long term. . . .
"Our goals in the early years are all about supporting kids to be who they are, develop their strengths, develop their passions and develop their independence," Professor Trembath said.
"The greatest cost over time is when kids aren't supported to develop those things … that means support, say through the NDIS, is more likely to be needed in the long term." . . .
Ms Gibellini said many in the autistic community did not feel comfortable with how the government had based Thriving Kids on labels such as "mild", "moderate" and "severe" autism.
"Autism doesn't fit in a box — it is very impacted by … different days, different times, different environments, different people, all kinds of things," she said.
"We have to be really, really conscious of that and make sure that people are not left out because we're putting people into these boxes that don't necessarily fit."
'We need support'
NDIS Minister Mark Butler did not answer specific questions about whether the government was confident "moderate" children would be properly serviced by Thriving Kids, who would be assessing a child's support requirements and how they would navigate masking, or what the proposed parenting courses will look like.
A statement, attributed to a government spokesperson, said the Commonwealth, states and territories were still finalising the national and local services to be delivered through Thriving Kids. . . .
Ms Tran said she had stopped reading about Thriving Kids due to stress.
She said kids like her sons would not be properly catered for without the tailored support currently funded by the NDIS, and the group therapies being proposed for Thriving Kids would not work for them.
"We can't even do group swimming lessons. I cannot imagine group therapy … I wouldn't even be able to get them in the room," Ms Tran said.
She said she would always be there for her kids, and while she did not mind where future support came from, all that mattered was that it was right for them — and her.
"[Parents are] already pushed to the point of burnout," Ms Tran said.
"We're not experts … we're just parents giving it a go and trying to raise great kids, but we need support."
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